Friday, August 02, 2013

The Blues and Guns Trying to Rule the Box Office: Scott's Latest Predictions

The blockbuster season is considered over now, and it is time for the typically quieter month of August.  Hollywood still has its guns blazing and hoping to avoid those box office blues.  Scott lays out his predictions for this weekend's wide release debuts.

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It was just over a month ago that The Heat came into theatres and gave us a buddy cop movie that focused on two strong female leads busting heads, taking names, and shooting bad guys in the nethers.  A few weeks later, the buddy cops were both dead and cracking down on dead people who had escaped judgement.  One of them also had a thing for ankles.  This weekend we get yet another buddy cop movie, and it will make its play for the top of the heap.  Does it have what it takes?

The movie I am referring to is 2 Guns, and it stars Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg as undercover agents working for separate agencies looking to bring down a drug cartel.  The key to any ‘buddy’ movie is the chemistry between the two leads, and both of those actors have the ability to bring the charm and charisma needed to make it work.  Both of these leads have been around long enough to develop some credibility with the public, and there should be a lot more interest in this pairing than there was for R.I.P.D.’s Ryan Reynolds and Jeff Bridges duo.  Washington is a proven box office draw and is coming off an Oscar nominated performance in Flight, and Wahlberg is a semi-consistent draw who can bring in the audience when in the right roles.

The only other new wide release movie this weekend is The Smurfs 2, and they need not worry about having to share demographics with them.    What could hinder 2 Guns is the 58% Rotten Tomatoes rating that it currently has, and the fact that it is a movie that is lacking internet buzz as it is barely getting any Twitter activity.  The reported earnings from late Thursday showings put it at earning $1.2 million, which is not a great start for a movie with such high caliber name value.  It will most likely not come close to the opening weekend of Safe House ($40 million), which paired Washington with Ryan Reynolds in February of last year.

2 Guns Opening Weekend Prediction - $23 million

The Smurfs 2 continues the part live action, part digital animation franchise that started two years ago.  The original movie was able to make $35 million in its opening weekend, on route to a worldwide box office of $563 million.  The sequel opened in theatres Wednesday and took first place in theatres with $5 million, and will be benefiting from a five day opening weekend.  A few weeks ago, Turbo went for the five day opening weekend, did $5 million on the Wednesday, and made $31 million for its five day opening weekend.  The Smurfs 2, which trailers don’t present the strongest premise for a movie (Gargamel tries to turn Smurfette into a naughty Smurf… I suppose that could work to implode a society based around having only one available female) and that may hurt it considering there have already been a number of family friendly movies out, and another one coming in just a week’s time.

The Smurfs 2 Five Day Weekend Prediction – 29 million

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